Teaser Kings ncabb picks for 12/6/2012

making the transition to hoops unless you limit yourself to your region and play only the teams and conferences you follow at this point of the season you still have to go with ratings systems from sites that preview teams and conferences like sagarin. (And others).  I have been doing that and my last few days have been dry runs that are looking consistent enough to go ahead and start posting, today is a light day in college so I will start slow.
My record in football with NFL and college combined this season is 49-12-2. I deal in six point teaser plays in football and five points in basketball. All my picks will be teaser plays although if I see a solid regular side or total I'll offer it as a lean.
I have used a betting strategy of two to three team teaser parlays in football and I will continue the same in basketball
2 play 5pt teaser parlay 10/13  3play 5pt teaser parlay 3/2  4 play 5pt teaser parlay 5/2
Xavier -6 basically fading Vandy
Syracuse -15.5 same with Niner's
San Diego st -10 this could be a solid regular side
Heat -2.5  with Anthony questionable this game is worth adding if your book hasn't taken it off the board.  GL!

Posted: 12/3/2012 5:05:41 AMPosted: 12/1/2012 4:50:25 PM[Quote: Originally Posted by renorunner2]  To anyone following I apologize for late posting on this site. These are covers.com postings.
YTD: 42-11-2 College and Pro football
Tulsa +4 already beat UCF a few weeks ago
Pitt -.5 Passing offense should be the difference
Kansas st. -5 Looking for the 'Cats to control the game with the running game.
Ravens -1.5 With Big Ben (out) this should be a given.DAMN those Ravens! I'll won't bet on those dipsticks again, NEVERMORE  Anyone who's done this long enough knows there are certain games  on any given week that seem too easy. And the line should have been closer to ten or over. This is the game thats going to bust your solid lock or promising parlay. Am I claiming fix? Not really. Is it possible there may be some results scripting going on? Lets just say over the years I've seen too many curious things happen in sports wagering (all sports) to never say never. Would the NFL prefer the AFC North division race to be over at this point in the season? Of course not. Anyone who says 'impossible' is living in fantasy land. In the real world anything is possible. Whether in business or politics or every day life the rational capper must consider all possibilities, even if the're not probabilites.
Texans -1 Lose against the Titans? I don't think so
Redskins +9  Taking a shot here (pending) 
45-11-2 As always these are six point teaser plays. Going into tommorrow, might as well throw in
Packers if you can get it at -3 or under, if you can get the Broncos at less than nine go for it. I have GB -2.5 and DEN-1
I would lay off anything over those lines. GL
I meant Broncos less than three, sorry!
Currently 48-12-2 waiting on WASH +9 tonite!

Twirpish Bog Costa's gun grabbing rant

Bob Costas has always been a twirpish weanie type who was able to work himself into the sports world as an outside interviewer-commentator with a focus on human interest and social causes in relations to sports. No one takes him seriously as a front and center announcer Now this dipstick thinks he has the influence/authority to get on his pc platform and and tell us because there those out there that have a screw loose whether they play in the NFL or anywhere else, that we must all give up our second amendment rights, that we are all disfunctional train wrecks just waiting to happen and we must comply to what cutting edge progressive monitors like him believe..

Update on my 11/27/2012 NBA picks

My first picks on basketball this year I find out Kobe Bryant is questionable with 'flu like' symptoms, although I still have to standby my LAL pick, I have to caution anyone considering playing them, even with a six point cushion.

Teaser King's 11/27/2012 NBA picks

#1

Posted: 11/26/2012 7:45:32 PM

I have been on NFL and college football so far this year. My record since 10/10/2012 is 42-11-2. Check my space for documentation. I focus on teaser plays with occasional regular side or total recommendations or leans that I don't count on my record. I believe that a two or three play teaser parlay has a better winning percentage than a tight lined straight bet, with close to the same payout. And with my previous experience in basketball teaser plays I believe they are even more effective than in football, as points scored in one- twos and threes are safer to project than points that come in three and six and one, or even two as we see in football. With that said, I will go ahead and post my first picks. I would not go under four points if you really have a strong opinion on the play, but I usually stay with six points.
HOU +1
SAC +4.5
LAL -1.5
The Rockets should be able to win straight-up,
The Kings have handled the Wolves at home,
The Pacers are out of their element on the road against a higher tiered team. Lakers still sorting it out but they will not lose to Indy.  
Just a start, thanks for reading my post and GL!

Lack of Discipline will lose you money

I just want to relay a lesson I seem to have to re-learn over and over again. Since I live in Reno NV, I like to put together parlays occasionally at the local sportsbook. My main focus is two or three play teasers. Thats why I call this page 'Teaser King'. But every once and a while I'll go for a long shot and play a six to eight regular side or total parlay off the board or a card. I usually play off the board because the cards usually leave off the lesser known to the public games or the games they consider too much of a risk. (The best overall cards to play are the William Hill cards. They usually have the most plays, best odds and higher payouts). 
 Today I missed a six teamer by one pick and another and another by two. The first loser was Clemson.  The two on the other card were Indiana and Wyoming. One of my main rules in capping is to avoid teams perceived to be weaker than the other. The other even more important rule is never to choose a play I didn't do my complete homework on. Don't add on games once you've made your final choices.  I'ts bad enough to lose on a pick you thoroughly studied but to lose on a last minute whim shows a lack of discipline.
p.s. (Their is no worse feeling in sports wagering than  having the right plays and not making the play.)

Teaser King's update of 11/21/2012 picks

11/22/-11/25 final wrap:
This weeks record 10-2,  42-11-2 from 10/10/2012, six point teaser plays-sides and totals. (Mostly sides) Most of my picks have been college with about two to three pro picks a week. Now that college is winding down time to focus more on the NFL. The pros are a more difficult beast to solve because the talent levels are very close and the difference between the winning teams and losing teams are based more on chess moves, cerebrally solid QB's with a killer instinct and overall team poise and character. As we have seen throughout this season the winning teams make less mistakes and just wait for the other team to beat themselves. I just hope I can maintain my winning percentage capping the remainder of the NFL season.

11/24/2012                   I busted on the NEB pick probably due to high winds which blunted T. Martinez's passing options. Otherwise SYRA  and CIN came through.
Not sure why the number is so low with ND, kinda fishy, but I'll go ahead and add a play with ND +2.
In the NFL I will go ahead and go with:
Bengals -2.5
Tenn/Jax over 37.5
Originally Posted by renorunner2]  11/21/2012
Picks for this coming week including college but this time I'll hold off on the NFL because I have no idea on Turkey day games. Currently I am at 32-10-2  As always these are six point teaser plays. Any regular side or total plays I recommend  are not counted on the record.
Syracuse -3.5 They have knocked off higher level teams with an offense that can compete with most top tier teams and a defense that should control a one dimensional Temple offense
Nebraska -8. A strong regular play at -14 but at -
8 very comfortable as a teaser play
Vandy-6.5 With a consistent ats record and emerging passing offense this is another potentially strong regular side play along with a  teaser play
Fresno st. -10.5 With a defense that should control the run and a QB that has star potential, I will go ahead and make a regular side play also.
Mississippi +4.5 I think this team has shown enough to make me believe they will prevail over a team with a softer schedule and a revenge mode in a intra-state rivalry.
Minnesota +14 The Gophs have played their best at home and the number is too much for an anemic Spartan offense to cover
Baylor +4 I was impressed with how they ran against Kst and I will fade Txtch in this one.      
     Originally Posted by renorunner2] 11/22/2012
just a heads-up to my 11/21/2012 post. I reviewed my picks and saw some problems with Minnesota (mostly injuries)that I must caution anyone considering them even at +14. I will stand by the pick for my record since I've had it posted.
I also held off on Cincinnati because I was unclear of who was going to be their starter at QB. But I am confident that SFLA will continue to struggle offensively without QB Daniels and I am comfortable laying -7 with the 'Cats.
Currently for this week I am at 7-2 even though I did back off my recommendation for Minnesota on my 11/22/2012 post I still counted it as a loss. You can see I added on two other plays after the first post, (11/21/2012) CINC,ND) and they both covered.
I have the Bengals -2 and Tenn/Jax over 37.5 posted and I added da Bears -.5 on an earlier post today. With these picks I am hoping to go 10-2 for this week.

Teaser King's addition to 22/21/2012 picks

#1

Posted: 11/22/2012 4:13:04 PM

just a heads-up to my 11/21/2012 post. I reviewed my picks and saw some problems with Minnesota (mostly injuries)that I must caution anyone considering them even at +14. I will stand by the pick for my record since I've had it posted.
I also held off on Cincinnati because I was unclear of who was going to be their starter at QB. But I am confident that SFLA will continue to struggle offensively without QB Daniels and I am comfortable laying -7 with the 'Cats
This was posted to my covers.com renorunner2 post. I had log-in issues with the page so I could not post it then. Still time to consider the MINN pick. Otherwise I busted on the NEB pick probably due to high winds which blunted T. Martinez's passing options. Otherwise SYRA  and CIN came through.
Not sure why the number is so low with ND, kinda fishy, but I'll go ahead and add a play with ND +2.
In the NFL I will go ahead and go with:
Bengals -2.5
Tenn/Jax over 37.5
Good luck!

Picks for this coming week including college but this time I'll hold off on the NFL because I have no idea on Turkey day games. Currently I am at 32-10-2  As always these are six point teaser plays. Any regular side or total plays I recommend  are not counted on the record.
Syracuse -3.5 They have knocked off higher level teams with an offense that can compete with most top tier teams and a defense that should control a one dimensional Temple offense
Nebraska -8. A strong regular play at -14 but at -
8 very comfortable as a teaser play
Vandy-6.5 With a consistent ats record and emerging passing offense this is another potentially strong regular side play along with a  teaser play
Fresno st. -10.5 With a defense that should control the run and a QB that has star potential, I will go ahead and make a regular side play also.
Mississippi +4.5 I think this team has shown enough to make me believe they will prevail over a team with a softer schedule and a revenge mode in a intra-state rivalry.
Minnesota +14 The Gophs have played their best at home and the number is too much for an anemic Spartan offense to cover
Baylor +4 I was impressed with how they ran against Kst and I will fade Txtch in this one.
I'll try to post NFL picks before Sunday.

Teaser King's 11/17/2012 picks review

Kansas st. -7  Baylor has played them tough the last couple of years but this year the J'hawks D is solid and will control a Griffin-less offense. And (at hopefully 100%) Klein will shred their  woeful D. This is also a solid regular side play.                
Northwestern +13      has been a covering machine even though they've had some tough losses. Too good of a team for an anemic Spartan offense to cover two TD's.
Nebraska -14 recent history record suggests a Huskers romp, Minn is weak on the road, regular side play is borderline but I am comfortable with -14, -13.5 even better.
LaTech +9 this is a tough play, UT st has become a public team. Could be a shootout but worth a play.
Wyoming -1 this could have been a competitive game and I had the over (53.5) until I saw Reb QB Sherry was listed as doubtful.
Temple +9 Two one dimensional teams I think the Owls talent level is slighter higher. Temple has a better chance of shutting down the Army run than the other way around. Army wins by less than seven or Temple can win by as much as 17.
Falcons -4 at home I can't see AZ staying within one TD with no real QB or running game.
Broncos -2.5 I am basically fading Rivers and his eroding skills and the whole SD sinking ship. GL
Another damn push. Whats hard to figure is why so many picks from Ryan. I didn't watch the game so I have to figure AZ's D-line owned the trenches.
As for Kansas st, I guess I underrated a Baylor team that has been improving overall throughout the season. But its hard to cap knowing that 'Colon' Klein and their 'D' was going to soil the sheets. They cost me a six team teaser parlay card. Thats what I get for mistakenly calling them J'hawks' on my original post. Otherwise 6-1-1 for this week brings me to 31-10-2 from 10/13/2012
These final regular season weeks will have tighter lines, inspired teams, teams that have quit, all kinds of situational considerations. Time to pay less attention to stats and more on intangibles, like mental toughness and heart. I'll look into the Turkey day games and post if I find something.

Teaser King's picks 11/17/2012

This week it looks like alot of strong teaser plays. My strategy is to select your strongest two or three picks and play a six point teaser parlay. I mix college and pro. I only count teaser selections on my record, so any regular side or totals I have are meant as leans. For example this week I am going with LTCH +9 as one of my teaser picks, but I also think they could win outright and I have them ML on a personal parlay. My record from 10/13/2012 is 25-9-1.
Kansas st. -7  Baylor has played them tough the last couple of years but this year the J'hawks D is solid and will control a Griffin-less offense. And (at hopefully 100%) Klein will shred their  woeful D. This is also a solid regular side play.                
Northwestern +13      has been a covering machine even though they've had some tough losses. Too good of a team for an anemic Spartan offense to cover two TD's.
Nebraska -14 recent history record suggests a Huskers romp, Minn is weak on the road, regular side play is borderline but I am comfortable with -14, -13.5 even better.
LaTech +9 this is a tough play, UT st has become a public team. Could be a shootout but worth a play.
Wyoming -1 this could have been a competitive game and I had the over (53.5) until I saw Reb QB Sherry was listed as doubtful.
Temple +9 Two one dimensional teams I think the Owls talent level is slighter higher. Temple has a better chance of shutting down the Army run than the other way around. Army wins by less than seven or Temple can win by as much as 17.
Falcons -4 at home I can't see AZ staying within one TD with no real QB or running game.
Broncos -2.5 I am basically fading Rivers and his eroding skills and the whole SD sinking ship. GL

Teaser King's 11/10/2012 picks review

Quote: Originally Posted by renorunner2]
Strong six point teaser parlay picks for you to kill your books this week:
Louisiana Tech -14
UCF -6.5
Cincinnati -5
Georgia -9
Ravens -3.5
Seahawks -.5    (notice how the last four plays were solid regular side picks as well?)

leans include

SDSU -3.5
Fresno st - Nevada under 74.5

some instinct regular side plays to consider:

Ravens -7.5
Falcons -3
Bucs -3
Seahawks -6.5
Pretty good week.  for the record I am only counting my teaser picks, not my leans or regular side considerations.
If you tailed me on UCF, I hope you got it under seven. I guess I have to make the adjustment in capping from stats and rankings to situational, being so late in the season these mid level teams like UCF and LTCH being on the road against lesser teams are content to just win the game. Other than that I did pretty well. Over my record in teasers over the last five weeks is 25-9-1.

Teaser King's picks 11/10/2012

Strong six point teaser parlay picks for you to kill your books this week:
Louisiana Tech -14
UCF -6.5
Cincinnati -5
Georgia -9
Ravens -3.5
Seahawks -.5

leans include

SDSU -3.5
Fresno st - Nevada under 74.5

some instinct regular side plays to consider:

Ravens -7.5
Falcons -3
Bucs -3
Seahawks -6.5
I'll have write-ups later to review my results whether I nail it or crash and burn.  Good luck to those who would consider tailing!

Teaser Kings picks

Cincy+1/2 Louisville pick LMON+91/2 Ore st -41/2 ECU-UAB ov 49 NFL Minn -1/2 GB -1/2 CHI pick Regular parlay: ECU-UAB ov 55 1/2 NO-TB ov 49 1/2 Minn ML GB ML CHI ML
	quote
renorunner2	View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 172 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 10/21/2012 8:27:29 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by renorunner2: Cincy+1/2 Louisville pick LMON+91/2 Ore st -41/2 ECU-UAB ov 49 NFL Minn -1/2 GB -1/2 CHI pick Regular parlay: ECU-UAB ov 55 1/2 NO-TB ov 49 1/2 Minn ML GB ML CHI ML Went 4-1 yesterday,  LOU covered but I didn't expect SFLA to outgain them, SFLA has upper level talent but has underperformed all season, they seemed have made an adrenaline surge late in the game and almost pulled it off, The Cincy game I lost but a pick six and a huge kickoff return is what did it. Still I didn't think TOL could hold them to just twenty three points. NFL players consider the plays I have posted. I'm waiting on them for a six pick parlay p.s. I had tons of leans I didn't play that covered, isn't that the way it usually goes?

Cincy+1/2 Louisville pick LMON+91/2 Ore st -41/2 ECU-UAB ov 49 NFL Minn -1/2 GB -1/2 CHI pick Regular parlay: ECU-UAB ov 55 1/2 NO-TB ov 49 1/2 Minn ML GB ML CHI ML
	quote
renorunner2	View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 172 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 10/21/2012 8:27:29 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by renorunner2: Cincy+1/2 Louisville pick LMON+91/2 Ore st -41/2 ECU-UAB ov 49 NFL Minn -1/2 GB -1/2 CHI pick Regular parlay: ECU-UAB ov 55 1/2 NO-TB ov 49 1/2 Minn ML GB ML CHI ML Went 4-1 yesterday,  LOU covered but I didn't expect SFLA to outgain them, SFLA has upper level talent but has underperformed all season, they seemed have made an adrenaline surge late in the game and almost pulled it off, The Cincy game I lost but a pick six and a huge kickoff return is what did it. Still I didn't think TOL could hold them to just twenty three points. NFL players consider the plays I have posted. I'm waiting on them for a six pick parlay p.s. I had tons of leans I didn't play that covered, isn't that the way it usually goes?

entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL!
	quote
renorunner2	View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 172 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 10/14/2012 8:09:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by renorunner2: entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL! Upon further review:   Lessons learned , Stats and numbers become less important in conference games. Suddenly EMICH becomes unstoppable, a loss for me but I don't think it was a glaring mistake, still need to not overlook anything. Thought I had TENN+9 in the bag with fourteen seconds left. My mistake was although TENN has an overall higher level talent their defense isn't good enough to to bail them out as they continue to find ways to lose in the second half. Other than that 5-2 isn't too shabby. I going to try to tighten up my capping. My goal is to put together a consistent 65% + list of winners, and from that list pick out the best two or three pick teaser parlay possibilities.

entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL!
	quote
renorunner2	View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 172 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 10/14/2012 8:09:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by renorunner2: entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL! Upon further review:   Lessons learned , Stats and numbers become less important in conference games. Suddenly EMICH becomes unstoppable, a loss for me but I don't think it was a glaring mistake, still need to not overlook anything. Thought I had TENN+9 in the bag with fourteen seconds left. My mistake was although TENN has an overall higher level talent their defense isn't good enough to to bail them out as they continue to find ways to lose in the second half. Other than that 5-2 isn't too shabby. I going to try to tighten up my capping. My goal is to put together a consistent 65% + list of winners, and from that list pick out the best two or three pick teaser parlay possibilities.

entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL!
	quote
renorunner2	View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 172 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 10/14/2012 8:09:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by renorunner2: entry level into college football in this forum just throwing my hat into the ring! always thought that a two or three pick teaser is a better investment than a tight-lined straight bet. Here are for your consideration some good potential teaser plays you might want to put into small parlays: Toledo-8 heavy public and sharp action on regular side Tennessee+9 could be a strong regular side play Notre Dame-3 I can't see Nunes getting it done Washington+17 too many points for USC to cover in the rain, Florida-2 don't think Vandy has the physical talent for SU win. Mississippi SU over Auburn worth a play over bad Tiger team bonus pick for NFL, MIA-31/2 Rams will be whipped at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball Regular side or teaser!  GL! Upon further review:   Lessons learned , Stats and numbers become less important in conference games. Suddenly EMICH becomes unstoppable, a loss for me but I don't think it was a glaring mistake, still need to not overlook anything. Thought I had TENN+9 in the bag with fourteen seconds left. My mistake was although TENN has an overall higher level talent their defense isn't good enough to to bail them out as they continue to find ways to lose in the second half. Other than that 5-2 isn't too shabby. I going to try to tighten up my capping. My goal is to put together a consistent 65% + list of winners, and from that list pick out the best two or three pick teaser parlay possibilities.

spaces.covers.com/renorunner2
Beginning 10/12/2012 these are my picks I have posted on covers.com for the purpose of documenting my record. Please excuse the duplication. In the future I will post each entry individually to avoid the clutter.
At this point I am focusing on football, (both NFL and college) but I will begin posting picks and general write-ups on both sports soon. If you are into sports and the challenge of sports handicapping, feel free to check in and give me test drive. I welcome all comments and contacts.
an alternate email address you can use is nnevc@yahoo.com    Thanks, and good luck!